Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.2%
Mainz
24.2%
Draw
15.7%
Schalke 04
Expected Goals (xG)
1.81
Mainz
vs
0.82
Schalke 04
Markets
BTTS47.6%
Over 0.592.0%
Over 1.574.7%
Over 2.549.0%
Over 3.527.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.2%
2-0
11.8%
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.0%
3-0
7.2%
3-1
5.9%
0-1
5.1%
1-2
4.4%
2-2
4.0%
4-0
3.2%
4-1
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).