Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →27.1%
Derby
29.6%
Draw
43.3%
Nott'm Forest
Expected Goals (xG)
1.02
Derby
vs
1.35
Nott'm Forest
Markets
BTTS48.3%
Over 0.589.5%
Over 1.569.5%
Over 2.542.1%
Over 3.521.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.0%
0-1
11.6%
0-0
10.5%
1-2
8.7%
0-2
8.6%
1-0
8.5%
2-1
6.5%
2-0
4.8%
2-2
4.4%
1-3
3.9%
0-3
3.8%
3-1
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).