Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →42.6%
Setubal
31.5%
Draw
25.9%
Santa Clara
Expected Goals (xG)
1.04
Setubal
vs
0.73
Santa Clara
Markets
BTTS33.0%
Over 0.583.6%
Over 1.552.4%
Over 2.526.2%
Over 3.510.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.2%
0-0
16.4%
0-1
13.0%
1-1
12.4%
2-0
9.2%
2-1
6.7%
1-2
4.8%
0-2
4.6%
3-0
3.2%
2-2
2.5%
3-1
2.3%
1-3
1.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).