Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.5%
Millwall
28.5%
Draw
27.0%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.44
Millwall
vs
1.07
Derby
Markets
BTTS51.2%
Over 0.590.8%
Over 1.572.5%
Over 2.545.9%
Over 3.524.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.6%
1-0
10.6%
0-0
9.2%
2-1
9.0%
2-0
8.4%
0-1
7.6%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
4.8%
0-2
4.7%
3-1
4.3%
3-0
4.0%
1-3
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).