Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →73.8%
Barnsley
13.8%
Draw
12.4%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
2.84
Barnsley
vs
1.10
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS62.3%
Over 0.598.6%
Over 1.589.9%
Over 2.575.3%
Over 3.555.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
8.6%
3-1
8.2%
2-0
7.8%
3-0
7.4%
1-0
6.0%
4-1
5.8%
1-1
5.6%
4-0
5.3%
2-2
4.7%
3-2
4.5%
1-2
3.3%
5-1
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).