Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →5.4%
Luton
21.7%
Draw
72.9%
Burnley
Expected Goals (xG)
0.32
Luton
vs
1.76
Burnley
Markets
BTTS23.0%
Over 0.586.9%
Over 1.562.0%
Over 2.534.4%
Over 3.515.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
21.5%
0-2
19.4%
0-0
13.1%
0-3
11.4%
1-1
7.6%
1-2
6.1%
0-4
5.0%
1-3
3.6%
1-0
3.4%
0-5
1.8%
1-4
1.6%
2-1
1.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).