Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.8%
Nacional
28.4%
Draw
20.7%
Alverca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.47
Nacional
vs
0.85
Alverca
Markets
BTTS45.0%
Over 0.589.2%
Over 1.568.3%
Over 2.540.9%
Over 3.520.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.5%
1-1
13.2%
0-0
10.8%
2-0
10.6%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.4%
3-0
5.2%
1-2
5.2%
3-1
4.4%
2-2
3.8%
0-2
3.5%
4-0
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).