Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →53.0%
Arouca
24.1%
Draw
22.8%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.58
Arouca
vs
0.94
Tondela
Markets
BTTS47.9%
Over 0.592.5%
Over 1.571.2%
Over 2.546.2%
Over 3.524.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.2%
1-1
11.4%
2-0
10.1%
2-1
9.5%
0-1
8.0%
0-0
7.5%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
5.3%
3-1
5.0%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
3.5%
3-2
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).