Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →27.9%
Chaves
27.2%
Draw
44.9%
Setubal
Expected Goals (xG)
0.95
Chaves
vs
1.29
Setubal
Markets
BTTS43.7%
Over 0.589.8%
Over 1.564.7%
Over 2.538.6%
Over 3.518.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
14.4%
1-1
12.5%
1-0
10.7%
0-0
10.2%
0-2
8.9%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
6.2%
2-0
4.8%
2-2
4.0%
0-3
3.8%
1-3
3.6%
3-1
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).