Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.2%
Notts County
28.2%
Draw
30.6%
Exeter
Expected Goals (xG)
1.18
Notts County
vs
0.97
Exeter
Markets
BTTS42.4%
Over 0.588.9%
Over 1.562.7%
Over 2.536.3%
Over 3.517.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.3%
1-1
12.8%
0-1
11.9%
0-0
11.1%
2-0
8.1%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
5.5%
2-2
3.8%
3-0
3.2%
3-1
3.1%
1-3
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).