Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.6%
Sutton
23.0%
Draw
29.4%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.69
Sutton
vs
1.27
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS58.2%
Over 0.595.3%
Over 1.579.0%
Over 2.556.8%
Over 3.534.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
9.2%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.1%
0-1
7.0%
2-2
6.0%
3-1
5.3%
0-0
4.7%
0-2
4.2%
3-0
4.1%
3-2
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).