Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.2%
Tondela
29.2%
Draw
34.6%
Maritimo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.04
Tondela
vs
1.01
Maritimo
Markets
BTTS40.5%
Over 0.587.7%
Over 1.560.2%
Over 2.533.7%
Over 3.515.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.0%
0-1
13.6%
1-1
12.9%
0-0
12.3%
2-1
7.0%
2-0
7.0%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
6.6%
2-2
3.6%
3-1
2.4%
3-0
2.4%
1-3
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).