Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →51.9%
Santander
21.0%
Draw
27.0%
Malaga
Expected Goals (xG)
2.07
Santander
vs
1.45
Malaga
Markets
BTTS66.8%
Over 0.597.1%
Over 1.586.5%
Over 2.568.2%
Over 3.546.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.2%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
6.7%
1-2
6.5%
2-0
6.3%
3-1
6.3%
1-0
6.2%
3-2
4.6%
0-1
4.4%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
3.3%
2-3
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).