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02 Aug 2024 · 18:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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77.6%
Union Berlin
16.5%
Draw
5.9%
K. Beerschot V.A.

Expected Goals (xG)

2.20

Union Berlin

vs
0.45

K. Beerschot V.A.

Markets

BTTS32.5%
Over 0.592.7%
Over 1.574.5%
Over 2.549.5%
Over 3.527.6%

Most Likely Scorelines

2-0
17.1%
1-0
15.2%
3-0
12.5%
2-1
7.7%
0-0
7.3%
1-1
7.3%
4-0
6.9%
3-1
5.7%
4-1
3.1%
5-0
3.0%
0-1
2.9%
2-2
1.7%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).