Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →91.1%
Sp Lisbon
6.5%
Draw
2.4%
Estrela
Expected Goals (xG)
3.42
Sp Lisbon
vs
0.45
Estrela
Markets
BTTS35.0%
Over 0.598.1%
Over 1.589.7%
Over 2.574.2%
Over 3.554.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
13.9%
2-0
12.2%
4-0
11.9%
5-0
8.1%
1-0
7.3%
3-1
6.3%
2-1
5.5%
4-1
5.4%
5-1
3.7%
1-1
3.1%
0-0
1.9%
3-2
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).