Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.0%
Tondela
27.2%
Draw
33.8%
Portimonense
Expected Goals (xG)
1.20
Tondela
vs
1.10
Portimonense
Markets
BTTS46.0%
Over 0.590.6%
Over 1.566.3%
Over 2.540.4%
Over 3.520.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.7%
1-0
12.6%
0-1
11.6%
0-0
9.4%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
7.3%
2-0
7.3%
0-2
6.0%
2-2
4.4%
3-1
3.2%
3-0
2.9%
1-3
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).