Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →13.5%
Alverca
21.1%
Draw
65.4%
Sp Braga
Expected Goals (xG)
0.84
Alverca
vs
2.07
Sp Braga
Markets
BTTS50.0%
Over 0.593.9%
Over 1.579.2%
Over 2.555.5%
Over 3.533.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
11.7%
0-1
10.8%
1-1
10.1%
1-2
9.8%
0-3
8.1%
1-3
6.8%
0-0
6.1%
0-4
4.2%
2-2
4.1%
1-0
4.0%
2-1
4.0%
1-4
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).