Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →86.9%
Arsenal
9.4%
Draw
3.8%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
3.53
Arsenal
vs
0.76
Luton
Markets
BTTS52.0%
Over 0.598.1%
Over 1.593.2%
Over 2.580.1%
Over 3.562.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
10.1%
4-0
8.9%
2-0
8.6%
3-1
7.6%
4-1
6.7%
2-1
6.5%
5-0
6.3%
5-1
4.8%
1-0
4.3%
1-1
4.2%
3-2
2.9%
4-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).