Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →17.2%
Spal
24.0%
Draw
58.8%
Atalanta
Expected Goals (xG)
0.75
Spal
vs
1.64
Atalanta
Markets
BTTS42.4%
Over 0.591.0%
Over 1.568.8%
Over 2.542.8%
Over 3.521.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
15.2%
0-2
12.3%
1-1
11.1%
1-2
9.2%
0-0
9.0%
1-0
7.1%
0-3
6.7%
1-3
5.1%
2-1
4.2%
2-2
3.5%
0-4
2.8%
2-0
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).