Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →30.6%
Ponferradina
31.6%
Draw
37.8%
Burgos
Expected Goals (xG)
0.88
Ponferradina
vs
1.01
Burgos
Markets
BTTS37.0%
Over 0.585.0%
Over 1.556.1%
Over 2.529.3%
Over 3.512.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
15.4%
0-0
15.0%
1-0
13.4%
1-1
13.3%
0-2
7.7%
1-2
6.8%
2-1
5.9%
2-0
5.8%
2-2
3.0%
0-3
2.6%
1-3
2.3%
3-1
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).