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14 Mar 2026 · 17:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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32.0%
Valladolid
30.3%
Draw
37.7%
Leganes

Expected Goals (xG)

0.96

Valladolid

vs
1.06

Leganes

Markets

BTTS40.2%
Over 0.586.9%
Over 1.559.8%
Over 2.532.9%
Over 3.514.6%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
14.3%
1-1
13.4%
0-0
13.1%
1-0
12.8%
0-2
7.5%
1-2
7.2%
2-1
6.4%
2-0
6.1%
2-2
3.4%
0-3
2.7%
1-3
2.5%
3-1
2.1%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).