Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →84.3%
Bayern Munich
10.7%
Draw
5.0%
Mainz
Expected Goals (xG)
3.24
Bayern Munich
vs
0.76
Mainz
Markets
BTTS51.3%
Over 0.597.8%
Over 1.591.1%
Over 2.576.1%
Over 3.556.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
10.4%
2-0
9.7%
4-0
8.4%
3-1
7.9%
2-1
7.3%
4-1
6.4%
1-0
5.6%
5-0
5.5%
1-1
4.8%
5-1
4.1%
3-2
3.0%
2-2
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).