Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →63.6%
Spal
21.4%
Draw
15.0%
Alfreton Town
Expected Goals (xG)
1.84
Spal
vs
0.75
Alfreton Town
Markets
BTTS44.1%
Over 0.592.8%
Over 1.572.7%
Over 2.547.9%
Over 3.526.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.1%
2-0
12.7%
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.5%
3-0
7.8%
0-0
7.2%
0-1
6.0%
3-1
5.8%
1-2
3.9%
2-2
3.6%
4-0
3.6%
4-1
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).