Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →12.8%
Lugo
26.5%
Draw
60.8%
Elche
Expected Goals (xG)
0.50
Lugo
vs
1.44
Elche
Markets
BTTS29.8%
Over 0.585.7%
Over 1.557.6%
Over 2.530.7%
Over 3.513.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
20.9%
0-2
15.0%
0-0
14.3%
1-1
10.2%
1-2
7.4%
1-0
7.2%
0-3
7.2%
1-3
3.6%
0-4
2.6%
2-1
2.6%
2-2
1.8%
2-0
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).