Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →94.3%
Burton
5.0%
Draw
0.7%
Tamworth
Expected Goals (xG)
3.23
Burton
vs
0.14
Tamworth
Markets
BTTS12.2%
Over 0.596.6%
Over 1.584.9%
Over 2.565.4%
Over 3.543.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
19.4%
2-0
18.0%
4-0
15.7%
1-0
11.2%
5-0
10.1%
0-0
3.4%
3-1
2.6%
2-1
2.5%
4-1
2.1%
1-1
1.5%
5-1
1.4%
0-1
0.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).