Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.1%
Lazio
28.5%
Draw
21.4%
Spal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.30
Lazio
vs
0.74
Spal
Markets
BTTS37.7%
Over 0.587.1%
Over 1.560.1%
Over 2.533.2%
Over 3.514.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.2%
0-0
12.9%
1-1
12.3%
2-0
11.0%
0-1
9.9%
2-1
8.1%
3-0
4.8%
1-2
4.6%
0-2
3.6%
3-1
3.5%
2-2
3.0%
4-0
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).