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HHT: 10CSV

15 May 2016

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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11.6%
Southampton
24.6%
Draw
63.8%
Crystal Palace

Expected Goals (xG)

0.67

Southampton

vs
1.83

Crystal Palace

Markets

BTTS42.5%
Over 0.590.4%
Over 1.572.8%
Over 2.545.7%
Over 3.524.3%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-2
13.7%
0-1
13.6%
1-1
11.5%
0-0
9.6%
1-2
9.2%
0-3
8.4%
1-3
5.6%
1-0
4.1%
0-4
3.8%
2-1
3.4%
2-2
3.1%
1-4
2.6%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).