Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.3%
Ath Madrid
26.2%
Draw
21.5%
Celta
Expected Goals (xG)
1.54
Ath Madrid
vs
0.89
Celta
Markets
BTTS46.6%
Over 0.591.0%
Over 1.570.1%
Over 2.543.9%
Over 3.522.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.3%
1-1
12.3%
2-0
10.4%
2-1
9.3%
0-0
9.0%
0-1
7.6%
1-2
5.4%
3-0
5.4%
3-1
4.8%
2-2
4.1%
0-2
3.5%
3-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).