Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →64.6%
Crawley Town
21.1%
Draw
14.3%
Welling United
Expected Goals (xG)
1.85
Crawley Town
vs
0.72
Welling United
Markets
BTTS43.1%
Over 0.592.7%
Over 1.572.5%
Over 2.547.6%
Over 3.525.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.4%
2-0
13.1%
1-1
9.9%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
8.1%
0-0
7.3%
3-1
5.8%
0-1
5.8%
4-0
3.7%
1-2
3.7%
2-2
3.4%
4-1
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).