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AHT: 04CSV

21 May 2017

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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6.2%
Watford
15.9%
Draw
77.9%
Manchester City

Expected Goals (xG)

0.64

Watford

vs
2.56

Manchester City

Markets

BTTS44.5%
Over 0.595.0%
Over 1.583.8%
Over 2.562.0%
Over 3.539.7%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-2
13.4%
0-3
11.4%
0-1
9.5%
1-2
8.6%
1-1
7.6%
1-3
7.3%
0-4
7.3%
0-0
5.0%
1-4
4.7%
0-5
3.7%
2-2
2.7%
1-5
2.4%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).