Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →69.1%
Villarreal
19.5%
Draw
11.4%
Deportivo Alavés
Expected Goals (xG)
2.12
Villarreal
vs
0.73
Deportivo Alavés
Markets
BTTS46.0%
Over 0.593.9%
Over 1.578.0%
Over 2.554.2%
Over 3.531.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
13.0%
1-0
11.9%
2-1
9.5%
1-1
9.3%
3-0
9.1%
3-1
6.7%
0-0
6.1%
4-0
4.8%
0-1
3.9%
4-1
3.5%
2-2
3.5%
1-2
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).