Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.5%
Sheffield United
27.5%
Draw
28.0%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.50
Sheffield United
vs
1.14
Derby
Markets
BTTS53.7%
Over 0.591.9%
Over 1.574.8%
Over 2.549.1%
Over 3.527.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.1%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
9.1%
0-0
8.1%
2-0
8.0%
0-1
7.3%
1-2
7.0%
2-2
5.2%
0-2
4.7%
3-1
4.6%
3-0
4.0%
1-3
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).