Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →42.7%
Notts County
28.5%
Draw
28.8%
Stevenage
Expected Goals (xG)
1.18
Notts County
vs
0.91
Stevenage
Markets
BTTS40.8%
Over 0.588.2%
Over 1.561.2%
Over 2.534.8%
Over 3.516.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.2%
1-1
12.7%
0-1
11.8%
0-0
11.8%
2-0
8.6%
2-1
7.8%
1-2
6.0%
0-2
5.1%
2-2
3.6%
3-0
3.4%
3-1
3.1%
1-3
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).