Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.2%
Freiburg
29.3%
Draw
21.5%
St Pauli
Expected Goals (xG)
1.40
Freiburg
vs
0.84
St Pauli
Markets
BTTS43.7%
Over 0.588.4%
Over 1.566.4%
Over 2.538.8%
Over 3.518.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.0%
1-1
13.5%
0-0
11.6%
2-0
10.5%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
8.0%
1-2
5.2%
3-0
4.9%
3-1
4.1%
0-2
3.7%
2-2
3.7%
3-2
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).