Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.2%
Aston Villa
30.7%
Draw
25.1%
Crystal Palace
Expected Goals (xG)
1.39
Aston Villa
vs
0.99
Crystal Palace
Markets
BTTS49.0%
Over 0.589.0%
Over 1.570.5%
Over 2.542.5%
Over 3.521.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.5%
1-0
11.1%
0-0
11.0%
2-0
8.9%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.4%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
4.6%
2-2
4.4%
3-0
4.1%
3-1
4.1%
1-3
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).