Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.6%
Fleetwood Town
24.2%
Draw
25.2%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.57
Fleetwood Town
vs
1.02
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS50.2%
Over 0.593.0%
Over 1.572.6%
Over 2.548.0%
Over 3.526.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.3%
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
9.2%
0-1
8.2%
0-0
7.0%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
4.9%
3-0
4.8%
2-2
4.8%
0-2
3.9%
3-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).