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06 Aug 2024 · 18:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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55.0%
Mulbarton Wanderers
31.2%
Draw
13.8%
Bristol City

Expected Goals (xG)

1.16

Mulbarton Wanderers

vs
0.42

Bristol City

Markets

BTTS23.4%
Over 0.579.9%
Over 1.546.8%
Over 2.521.3%
Over 3.57.7%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
24.1%
0-0
20.1%
2-0
13.8%
1-1
9.8%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
5.9%
3-0
5.4%
3-1
2.3%
1-2
2.1%
0-2
1.8%
4-0
1.6%
2-2
1.2%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).