Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →27.2%
Tondela
29.8%
Draw
43.0%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
0.82
Tondela
vs
1.12
Nacional
Markets
BTTS37.2%
Over 0.586.2%
Over 1.557.2%
Over 2.530.8%
Over 3.513.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
16.7%
0-0
13.8%
1-1
12.6%
1-0
12.4%
0-2
9.0%
1-2
7.4%
2-1
5.4%
2-0
4.8%
0-3
3.4%
2-2
3.0%
1-3
2.8%
3-1
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).