Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →67.7%
Almeria
19.8%
Draw
12.6%
Alcorcon
Expected Goals (xG)
2.01
Almeria
vs
0.73
Alcorcon
Markets
BTTS44.6%
Over 0.593.6%
Over 1.575.7%
Over 2.551.6%
Over 3.529.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.1%
2-0
13.1%
2-1
9.5%
1-1
9.3%
3-0
8.8%
3-1
6.4%
0-0
6.4%
0-1
4.8%
4-0
4.4%
2-2
3.5%
1-2
3.4%
4-1
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).