Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →43.0%
Spezia
29.5%
Draw
27.5%
Carrarese
Expected Goals (xG)
1.38
Spezia
vs
1.06
Carrarese
Markets
BTTS50.1%
Over 0.590.0%
Over 1.571.2%
Over 2.544.0%
Over 3.522.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.0%
1-0
10.8%
0-0
10.0%
2-1
8.8%
2-0
8.3%
0-1
8.0%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
4.9%
2-2
4.6%
3-1
4.0%
3-0
3.8%
1-3
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).