Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.6%
Brighton
28.6%
Draw
32.8%
Newcastle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.46
Brighton
vs
1.33
Newcastle
Markets
BTTS58.2%
Over 0.592.2%
Over 1.578.4%
Over 2.552.9%
Over 3.530.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.6%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
7.9%
0-0
7.8%
1-0
7.3%
2-0
6.5%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
5.8%
0-2
5.4%
3-1
4.2%
1-3
3.5%
3-0
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).