Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.6%
Chelsea
24.7%
Draw
14.7%
Nott'm Forest
Expected Goals (xG)
1.89
Chelsea
vs
0.84
Nott'm Forest
Markets
BTTS49.7%
Over 0.592.0%
Over 1.577.1%
Over 2.551.4%
Over 3.529.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.8%
2-0
11.6%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
8.0%
3-0
7.3%
3-1
6.2%
1-2
4.4%
2-2
4.1%
0-1
4.1%
4-0
3.5%
4-1
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).