Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →27.7%
Celta
25.7%
Draw
46.6%
Real Madrid
Expected Goals (xG)
1.14
Celta
vs
1.55
Real Madrid
Markets
BTTS53.8%
Over 0.593.0%
Over 1.575.2%
Over 2.550.4%
Over 3.528.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.2%
0-1
10.3%
1-2
9.3%
0-2
8.2%
1-0
7.5%
0-0
7.0%
2-1
6.8%
2-2
5.3%
1-3
4.8%
2-0
4.4%
0-3
4.2%
2-3
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).