Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.3%
Millwall
28.8%
Draw
23.0%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
1.45
Millwall
vs
0.92
Watford
Markets
BTTS47.1%
Over 0.589.6%
Over 1.569.5%
Over 2.542.2%
Over 3.521.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.5%
1-0
12.5%
0-0
10.4%
2-0
9.8%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.6%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
4.7%
3-1
4.4%
2-2
4.2%
0-2
4.0%
3-2
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).