Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.9%
Santander
20.4%
Draw
18.7%
Numancia
Expected Goals (xG)
2.08
Santander
vs
1.06
Numancia
Markets
BTTS57.0%
Over 0.595.8%
Over 1.581.9%
Over 2.560.7%
Over 3.538.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.9%
1-1
9.5%
2-0
9.4%
1-0
9.1%
3-1
6.9%
3-0
6.5%
2-2
5.3%
1-2
5.1%
0-1
4.7%
0-0
4.2%
3-2
3.6%
4-1
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).