Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →24.2%
Derby
24.7%
Draw
51.0%
Fulham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.18
Derby
vs
1.80
Fulham
Markets
BTTS58.6%
Over 0.594.1%
Over 1.580.5%
Over 2.557.2%
Over 3.534.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.6%
1-2
9.7%
0-1
8.4%
0-2
8.2%
2-1
6.4%
0-0
5.9%
1-3
5.8%
2-2
5.7%
1-0
5.2%
0-3
4.9%
2-0
3.5%
2-3
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).