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11 Feb 2026 · 20:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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69.5%
Swindon
17.1%
Draw
13.5%
Newport County

Expected Goals (xG)

2.35

Swindon

vs
0.92

Newport County

Markets

BTTS54.2%
Over 0.596.5%
Over 1.583.4%
Over 2.563.4%
Over 3.541.3%

Most Likely Scorelines

2-0
10.5%
2-1
9.7%
1-0
9.2%
3-0
8.2%
1-1
7.9%
3-1
7.6%
4-0
4.8%
2-2
4.5%
4-1
4.4%
0-1
3.8%
1-2
3.8%
3-2
3.5%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).