Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →29.4%
Cardiff
29.6%
Draw
41.0%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
1.08
Cardiff
vs
1.32
Watford
Markets
BTTS49.6%
Over 0.589.9%
Over 1.570.3%
Over 2.543.1%
Over 3.522.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.0%
0-1
10.9%
0-0
10.1%
1-0
8.7%
1-2
8.5%
0-2
7.9%
2-1
7.0%
2-0
5.3%
2-2
4.6%
1-3
3.8%
0-3
3.5%
3-1
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).