Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →26.2%
Lugo
30.8%
Draw
43.1%
Ponferradina
Expected Goals (xG)
0.80
Lugo
vs
1.12
Ponferradina
Markets
BTTS37.0%
Over 0.585.5%
Over 1.557.1%
Over 2.530.2%
Over 3.512.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
16.5%
0-0
14.5%
1-1
13.0%
1-0
11.8%
0-2
9.2%
1-2
7.4%
2-1
5.3%
2-0
4.7%
0-3
3.4%
2-2
3.0%
1-3
2.8%
3-1
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).