Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →5.8%
Crawley Town
7.3%
Draw
86.9%
Carlton Town
Expected Goals (xG)
1.38
Crawley Town
vs
4.54
Carlton Town
Markets
BTTS74.1%
Over 0.599.8%
Over 1.598.1%
Over 2.593.4%
Over 3.584.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-4
6.6%
1-5
6.0%
1-3
5.8%
0-4
4.8%
2-4
4.6%
0-5
4.3%
0-3
4.2%
2-5
4.1%
2-3
4.0%
1-2
3.8%
0-2
2.8%
2-2
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).